ON THE RECORDSealed
Bitcoin trades above $125,000 before August 15
I predict BTC/USD prints at or above $125,000 on a major spot exchange before August 15, 2026.
n=6
The record leans NO at 38%.
Crowd consensus from 6 forecasters — log-odds pool, shown honestly with n.
Your forecast — on the record
65%it happens
Exact conditions — sealed & immutable
- Resolves YES if BTC/USD trades at or above $125,000 at any moment before the deadline on Coinbase, Kraken, or Binance spot.
- A single print on any one of the three venues counts.
- Source of truth: the venues’ own candles; CoinGecko history acceptable as mirror.
sealed 2026-07-02#1329f8cbsha-256 of the sealed criteria — any edit would break it
Forecasters — 6 on the record
Halving-year seasonality says yes, ETF flows say maybe. 44% — honest about the coin flip.
Crypto YES calls are free retweets and bad calibration. NO.
No wagers, no odds, no cash value — accuracy only.
Discussion — no comments