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ON THE RECORDSealed

OpenAI releases GPT-5.6 SOL this week

I predict OpenAI will publicly release a model called GPT-5.6 SOL, or a clearly equivalent GPT-5.6-series model branded as SOL, by the end of this week.

@martinsdeadline JUL 6 2026 · 06:59 UTCsource
46%n=6
The record leans NO at 46%.

Crowd consensus from 6 forecasters — log-odds pool, shown honestly with n.

Your forecast — on the record

65%it happens

Discussion — no comments

Exact conditions — sealed & immutable

  • Counts as met if OpenAI publishes an official announcement, model card, API documentation, release notes, or ChatGPT model picker entry for GPT-5.6 SOL or a clearly equivalent GPT-5.6 SOL-branded model.
  • The release must be public or broadly available to paying users, developers, or ChatGPT users. A closed private test, rumor, third-party leak, or employee hint does not count.
  • A model with unrelated naming does not count unless OpenAI explicitly presents it as the GPT-5.6 SOL release.
  • Deadline is Sunday, July 5, 2026 at 23:59 Pacific Time, which is Monday, July 6, 2026 at 06:59 UTC.
  • If OpenAI announces before the deadline but access rolls out later, it counts only if official release materials say the model is released or rolling out, not merely planned.
sealed 2026-07-01#c1f8a26asha-256 of the sealed criteria — any edit would break it

Forecasters — 6 on the record

  • @martinsYES 55%4h ago
  • @vekt0rNO 38%150 pts staked3h ago

    “SOL” smells like a codename leak — leaks run early on hype, late on ship dates.

  • @martanobleNO 44%2h ago

    OpenAI ships when it’s real and teases when it’s not. This week reads like a teaser week.

  • @pxlsmithYES 60%25 pts staked1h ago
  • @quietbearNO 30%47m ago

    Announced ≠ released. Sealed NO.

  • @arvidsYES 52%just now

No wagers, no odds, no cash value — accuracy only.