Quiet Bear
@quietbearx.com/quietbear_macro
Mostly saying NO when the crowd says YES. The record keeps me honest.
on the record since 2026-07-01
9Open calls
1Sealed as author
0Settled
—Called it
Calls on the record — 9
- SealedA prediction card gets posted to X this weekNO 45%50 ptsJUL 3 2026 · 20:59 UTC
New sites always slip the first share.
- SealedOpenAI releases GPT-5.6 SOL this weekNO 30%JUL 6 2026 · 06:59 UTC
Announced ≠ released. Sealed NO.
- SealedA top-3 seed wins the Wimbledon 2026 men’s titleNO 48%JUL 13 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Draws break. 48%.
- SealedRiga hits 30 C before July 20NO 40%JUL 20 2026 · 20:59 UTC
- SealedThe ECB cuts rates at its July meetingNO 25%100 ptsJUL 31 2026 · 12:00 UTC
Hold. The ECB never pre-empts the Fed in a quiet July.
- SealedRiga records a tropical night before AugustNO 35%AUG 1 2026 · 00:00 UTC
- SealedBitcoin trades above $125,000 before August 15NO 20%150 ptsAUG 15 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Crypto YES calls are free retweets and bad calibration. NO.
- SealedEUR/USD fixes above 1.20 before SeptemberNO 22%100 ptsauthorSEP 1 2026 · 00:00 UTC
1.20 needs a Fed panic AND an ECB hold, in the same summer. Possible, not probable.
- SealedAn AI agent tops 95% on SWE-bench Verified before OctoberNO 18%200 ptsOCT 1 2026 · 00:00 UTC
The verified subset is adversarial by design. NO.
Play-money points only — accuracy is the only currency that counts.