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ON THE RECORDSealed

The ECB cuts rates at its July meeting

I predict the ECB lowers the deposit facility rate at its July 2026 Governing Council monetary-policy meeting.

@annakalnedeadline JUL 31 2026 · 12:00 UTCsource
30%sealed by author
The record leans NO at 30%.

The author’s own sealed number — crowd consensus appears from 5 forecasters.

Your forecast — on the record

65%it happens

Discussion — no comments

Exact conditions — sealed & immutable

  • Resolves YES if the ECB’s official press release from the July 2026 monetary-policy meeting announces a reduction of the deposit facility rate.
  • Any cut size counts. A hold, or no July monetary-policy decision, resolves NO.
  • Source of truth: ecb.europa.eu press releases.
sealed 2026-07-01#47115139sha-256 of the sealed criteria — any edit would break it

Forecasters — 4 on the record

  • @annakalneNO 30%28h ago

    Core services inflation is still sticky. July is a hold; September is the live meeting.

  • @quietbearNO 25%100 pts staked26h ago

    Hold. The ECB never pre-empts the Fed in a quiet July.

  • @helioscopeNO 28%21h ago
  • @arvidsNO 35%8h ago

No wagers, no odds, no cash value — accuracy only.