ON THE RECORDSealed
EUR/USD fixes above 1.20 before September
I predict the ECB euro reference rate exceeds 1.2000 USD per EUR on at least one fixing before September 1, 2026.
sealed by author
The record leans NO at 22%.
The author’s own sealed number — crowd consensus appears from 5 forecasters.
Your forecast — on the record
65%it happens
Exact conditions — sealed & immutable
- Resolves YES if any official ECB euro reference rate fixing before the deadline is above 1.2000.
- Intraday prints do not count — fixings only.
- Source of truth: ECB reference rates; the Frankfurter API is an acceptable mirror.
sealed 2026-07-01#e63df98csha-256 of the sealed criteria — any edit would break it
Forecasters — 4 on the record
1.20 needs a Fed panic AND an ECB hold, in the same summer. Possible, not probable.
Dollar smile says no; positioning says squeeze. 28%.
No wagers, no odds, no cash value — accuracy only.
Discussion — no comments