ON THE RECORDSealed
Riga hits 30 C before July 20
I predict Riga will record at least one official 30 C or hotter day before July 20, 2026.
n=6
The record leans YES at 65%.
Crowd consensus from 6 forecasters — log-odds pool, shown honestly with n.
Your forecast — on the record
65%it happens
Exact conditions — sealed & immutable
- Counts as met if an official Latvian meteorological source reports 30.0 C or higher for Riga before the deadline.
- Unofficial phone, car, balcony, or street thermometers do not count.
- If multiple Riga stations disagree, the prediction counts if at least one official Riga station reaches 30.0 C.
- Deadline is July 20, 2026 at 23:59 Europe/Riga time.
sealed 2026-07-01#6e00f62fsha-256 of the sealed criteria — any edit would break it
Forecasters — 6 on the record
Blocking high parked over Scandinavia from the 8th — one clean push of continental air does it.
July climatology plus this ridge beats a coin flip.
No wagers, no odds, no cash value — accuracy only.
Discussion — no comments