ON THE RECORDSealed
Riga records a tropical night before August
I predict Riga records at least one tropical night — a daily minimum temperature at or above 20.0 °C — before August 1, 2026.
n=6
The record leans YES at 53%.
Crowd consensus from 6 forecasters — log-odds pool, shown honestly with n.
Your forecast — on the record
65%it happens
Exact conditions — sealed & immutable
- Resolves YES if any official daily minimum for Riga (LVĢMC Rīga–Universitāte station) is at or above 20.0 °C before the deadline.
- One qualifying night is enough.
- Source of truth: videscentrs.lvgmc.lv daily observations; Open-Meteo archive acceptable as mirror.
sealed 2026-07-01#297162c5sha-256 of the sealed criteria — any edit would break it
Forecasters — 6 on the record
A 20 °C minimum needs a warm sector, wind, and a cloud deck holding all night — rarer than it sounds.
Sea-surface anomalies are positive in the Gulf of Riga. One warm-advection night does it.
No wagers, no odds, no cash value — accuracy only.
Discussion — no comments